Scientific Publications
Recent/Highlighted
Integrating land-use and climate connectivity to link protected areas at the country level
Ecological corridors that are high in biodiversity potential and stable under climate change are central to long-term conservation planning. Yet spatial prioritization frameworks rarely integrate land-use resistance and climate stability into a unified approach, limiting their operational value for landscape management and policy.
We aimed to develop an ecological connectivity framework that jointly incorporates land-use resistance and climate stability to map linkages among protected areas, and to quantify and communicate methodological uncertainty arising from key parameterization choices.
Toward climate-smart rewilding: an integrated framework for biodiversity, climate change, and society
We propose a climate-smart rewilding framework that explicitly integrates biodiversity recovery with climate mitigation, climate adaptation, and socio-economic considerations. Using Europe as a case study, we map potential synergies and trade-offs among carbon sequestration, ecosystem resilience to climate change, wildlife-based tourism opportunities, and the risk of livestock predator conflict. We argue that this integrative framework provides a practical basis for identifying and assessing restoration strategies that deliver multiple benefits across regional and continental scales.
Publications
35) Alagador, D; Ceia-Hasse, A; Dias, FS; Darmien, J; Araújo, MB; Moreira, F. 2026. Integrating land-use and climate connectivity to link protected areas at the country level. Landscape Ecology, 41, 218 (doi: 10.1007/s10980-026-02473-1).
34) Stark, G; Weissgerber, M; Fernández, N; Quintero-Uribe, LC; Marek Giergiczny, M; Elisabeth S. Bakker, ES; Mols, B; Smith, AM; Winkel, G; Alagador, D; … Pereira, HM. 2026. Toward Climate-Smart Rewilding: An integrated framework for biodiversity, climate change, and society. One Earth, 101704 (doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101704)
33) Wang, H-H; Alagador, D. 2025. The critical challenge of nonstationarity in ecological modelling. Ecological Modelling (doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111248).
32) Jung, M; Adams, V; Alagador, D; Álvarez-Romero, J; Araujo, MB; Arponen, A;…Visconti, P. 2025. An Interoperable and Standardized Protocol for Reporting Systematic Conservation Planning Projects. Conservation Science and Practice (doi: 10.1111/csp2.70097).
31) Araújo, MB; Alagador, D; Naimi, B; Neto; D; Rozenfeld, A. 2025. Towards a climate-resilient conservation network in Portugal. Biological Conservation: 308 (doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111249).
30) Araújo, MB; Alagador, D; Rocha de Sousa, M. 2024. Climate policy beyond ideological trenches. sustainability Science (doi: 10.1007/s11625-024-01597-0).
29) Jung, M; Adams, V; Alagador, D; Álvarez-Romero, J; Araujo, MB; Arponen, A;…Visconti, P. 2024. An Interoperable and Standardized Protocol for Reporting Systematic Conservation Planning Projects. OSF Preprints (doi: 10.31219/osf.io/9vrxf).
28) Araújo, M.B.; Alagador, D. 2024. Expanding European protected areas through rewilding. Current Biology (doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.07.045).
27) Alagador, D. 2024. Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change. Conservation Biology, e14315 (doi: 10.1111/cobi.14315).
26) González-Trujillo, J.D.; Alagador, D.; Gonzalez-Del_Pliego, P.; Araújo, M.B. 2024. Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events. Conservation Biology, e14251 (doi: 10.1111/cobi.14251).
25) Jung, M.; Alagador, D.; Chapman, M.; Hermoso, V.; Kujala, H.; O'Connor, L.;Schinegger,R.; Verburg, P.; Visconti, P. 2023. An Assessment of the State of Conservation Planning in Europe. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B (doi:10.1098/rstb.2023.0015).
24) Alagador, D. 2022. Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate driven range shifts. Conservation Biology, e14026 (doi: 10.1111/cobi.14026)
23) Alagador, D.; Cerdeira, J.O. 2022. Operations Research applicability in spatial conservation planning. Journal of Environmental Managament, 315, 115172 (doi: 1016/j.jenvman.2022.115172)
22) Alagador, D.; Cerdeira, J.O. Operations Research and cost-effective spatial conservation planning: data, models, tools and future directions. Preprints 2021, 2021120035 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202112.0035.v1)
21) Dupont-Doaré, C; Alagador, D. 2021. Overlooked effects of temporal resolution choice on climate-proof spatial conservation plans for biodiversity. Biological Conservation, 263: 109330 (doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109330)
20) Chacón-Prieto, F; Rodríguez-Soto, C; Cuervo-Robayo, AP; Monroy, JCC; Alagador, D. 2021. Protected areas in Central Mexico - are they fit in promoting species persistence under climate and land use changes? Biological Conservation 260: 109186 (doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109186)
19) Alagador D; Cerdeira JO. 2020. Revisiting the minimum set cover, the maximal coverage models and a maximum benefit area selection model to make climate-change-concerned conservation plans effective. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 11: 1325-1337 (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13455)
18) Cerdeira, JO; Monteiro-Henriques, T; Martins, MJ; Silva, PC; Alagador, D; Franco, AMA; Campagmolo, ML; Arsénio, P; Aguiar, F; Cabeza, M. 2019. Revisiting niche fundamentals with Tukey depth. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9: 2349-2361 (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13074)
17) Herrera, J; Alagador, D; Salgueiro, P; Mira, A. 2018. A distribution-oriented approach to support landscape connectivity for ecologically distinct bird species. Plos One (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194848)
16) Alagador, D; Cerdeira, JO. 2018. A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future-time. Ecology and Evolution, 8: 3457-3467 (doi: 10.1002/ece3.3788)
15) Buchadas, A; Vaz, AS; Honrado, JP; Alagador, D; Bastos, R; Cabral, JA; Santos, M; Vicente, JR. 2017. Dynamic modelling in research and management of biological invasions. Journal of Environmental Management, 196: 594-606 (doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.060)
14) Alagador, D & Cerdeira, JO. 2017. Meeting species persistence targets under climate change: a spatially-explicit conservation planning model. Diversity and Distributions, 23: 703-713 (doi: 10.1111/ddi.12562)
13) Vicente, JR; Alagador, D; Guerra, C; Alonso, JM; Kueffer, C; Vaz, AS; Fernandes, RF; Cabral, JA; Araújo, MB, Honrado, JP. 2016. Effective and cost-efficient monitoring of biological invasions under global change: A model-based framework. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53: 1317:1329 (doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12631)
12) Alagador, D; Cerdeira, JO; Araújo, MB. 2016. Climate change, species range shifts and dispersal corridors: a portfolio of spatial conservation models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7: 853–866 (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12524)
11) Cerdeira, JO; Monteiro-Henriques, T; Martins, MJ; Silva; P; Alagador, D & Franco, A. 2014. Mathematical contributions to link biota with environment. Journal of Vegetation Science, 25: 1148–1153 (doi: 10.1111/jvs.12188)
10) Alagador, D; Cerdeira, JO; Araújo, MB. 2014. Shifting protected areas: scheduling spatial priorities under climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51: 703-713 (doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12230)
9) Shoo, LP; Hoffmann, AA; Garnett, S.; Pressey, RL; Williams, YM; Taylor, M; Falconi, L; Yates, CJ; Scott, JK; Alagador, D; Williams, SE. 2013. Making decisions to conserve species under climate change. Climatic Change, 119: 239-246 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0699-2)
8) Brás, R; Cerdeira, JO; Alagador, D & Araújo, MB. 2013. Linking habitats for multiple species. Environmental Modelling and Software, 40: 336-339 (doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.08.001)
7) Oliveira, G; Araújo, MB; Rangel, TFLVB; Alagador, D; Diniz-Filho, JAF. 2012. Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation, 21: 2913–2926 (doi: 10.1007/s10531-012-0346-7)
6) Alagador, D; Triviño, M; Cerdeira, JO; Brás, R; Cabeza, M & Araújo, MB. 2012. Linking like with like: optimising connectivity between environmentally-similar habitats. Landscape Ecology, 27 (2): 291-301 (doi: 10.1007/s10980-012-9704-9)
5) Araújo, MB; Alagador, D; Cabeza, M; Nogués-Bravo, D & Thuiller, W. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters, 14: 484-492 (doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x)
4) Alagador, D; Martins, MJ; Cerdeira, JO; Brás, R; Cabeza, M & Araújo, MB. 2011. A probability-based approach to match species with reserves when data are at different resolutions. Biological Conservation, 144 (2): 811-820 (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.11.011)
3) Alagador, D & Cerdeira, JO. 2007. Designing spatially-explicit ecological reserve networks in the presence of mandatory sites. Biological Conservation, 137: 254-262 (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2007.02.008)
2) Alagador, D & Costa, PM. 2003. Distribution patterns of deep-sea benthopelagic fish off Algarve coast, Portugal. Boletín del Instituto Español de Oceanografía, 19 (1-4): 407-417. (link)
1) Alagador, D & Murta, A. 2002. A comparison of staining techniques to improve precision of age estimations from fish otoliths. Journal of Fish Biology, 61 (3): 839-841 (doi: 10.1111/j.1095-8649.2002.tb00915.x)